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Record W4408333772 · doi:10.1002/aepp.13503

US employment exposure to domestic and foreign tariff changes under <scp>NAFTA</scp>

2025· article· en· W4408333772 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueApplied Economic Perspectives and Policy · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal trade and economics
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNational Institute of Food and Agriculture
KeywordsTariffInternational tradeInternational economicsEconomicsBusiness

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Literature examining the effects of changes in trade agreements and import competition on US employment and wages has focused primarily on non‐agricultural industries and changes in US import tariffs. We propose a method for measuring worker exposure to changes in agricultural tariffs using a newly developed county‐level dataset of employment shares by crop and livestock type. We apply the method to examine the spatial concentration of US county‐level employment‐weighted exposure to changes in tariffs caused by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Results reveal noteworthy decreases in average US county‐level crop and livestock employment exposure to Mexican import tariffs on US products. Findings also show spatial variation in US employment exposure to changes in Mexican import tariffs on US agricultural and non‐agricultural goods. Changes in county‐level employment exposure to US and Canadian import tariffs after NAFTA implementation are relatively minor given low initial tariff rates prior to the agreement.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.382
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.242
Teacher spread0.219 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it