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Record W4408426385 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9702

Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2025· preprint· en· W4408426385 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCirculation (fluid dynamics)Shutdown of thermohaline circulationClimatologyStability (learning theory)Zonal and meridionalThermohaline circulationGeographyOceanographyGeologyComputer scienceNorth Atlantic Deep WaterMechanicsPhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping climate conditions over the North Atlantic region and beyond, and its instability explains past abrupt climate transitions and millennial-scale glacial climate variability. Here we use the fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X to explore the stability of the AMOC when faced with combined changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and FWF in the North Atlantic under different configurations of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets.We find four different AMOC states associated with qualitatively different convection patterns. Apart from an Off AMOC state with no North Atlantic deep-water formation and a Modern-like AMOC with deep water forming in the Labrador and Nordic seas as observed at present, we find a Weak AMOC state with convection occurring south of 55°N and a Strong AMOC state characterized by deep-water formation extending into the Arctic. Generally, the equilibrium strength of the AMOC increases with increasing CO2 and decreases with increasing FWF. Our results show that Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations originate from convective instability leading to transitions between the Weak and Modern AMOC states when the surface buoyancy flux integrated over the northern North Atlantic (>55°N) changes sign. Under typical mid-glacial conditions in terms of NH ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2 the model produces pronounced internal millennial-scale climate variability that resembles observed DO oscillations.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.016

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.029
GPT teacher head0.250
Teacher spread0.220 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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