Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping climate conditions over the North Atlantic region and beyond, and its instability explains past abrupt climate transitions and millennial-scale glacial climate variability. Here we use the fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X to explore the stability of the AMOC when faced with combined changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and FWF in the North Atlantic under different configurations of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets.We find four different AMOC states associated with qualitatively different convection patterns. Apart from an Off AMOC state with no North Atlantic deep-water formation and a Modern-like AMOC with deep water forming in the Labrador and Nordic seas as observed at present, we find a Weak AMOC state with convection occurring south of 55°N and a Strong AMOC state characterized by deep-water formation extending into the Arctic. Generally, the equilibrium strength of the AMOC increases with increasing CO2 and decreases with increasing FWF. Our results show that Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations originate from convective instability leading to transitions between the Weak and Modern AMOC states when the surface buoyancy flux integrated over the northern North Atlantic (>55°N) changes sign. Under typical mid-glacial conditions in terms of NH ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2 the model produces pronounced internal millennial-scale climate variability that resembles observed DO oscillations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".