Evaluation the suitability of contrasting performance metrics and signature measures with the identifiability quote index
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Good representation of the hydrological system in models is required to provide reliable predictions. The selection of a suitable set of performance criteria is a core decision in identifying the optimal parameter set(s) during model calibration. As each performance criterion focuses on different parts of the hydrograph, their selection often determines which parameter values are selected as optimal for representing the rainfall-runoff behaviour in a catchment. Knowning which performance criteria are most suitable for which purpose, model or catchment is difficult to determine.We therefore selected a set of 16 classical performance metrics and signature measures which together cover all phases of the hydrograph to test their suitability for identifying different types of parameters. We used four hydrological models (HBV, SWAT+, mHM and RAVEN-GR4J) in six catchments belonging to diverse landscapes in Germany. All model parameters were grouped into five process groups (snow, evapotranspiration, soil, surface and subsurface processes) to make the parameters comparable between the models. We then developed a metric called “identifiability quote index” which shows the degree of identifiability for each combination of parameter and performance criterion.Our results show that the classical performance criteria (e.g. NSE, KGE) are not sufficient to identify suitable values for all parameters. Signature measures (e.g. flashiness index, baseflow index) often have a higher “identifiability quote index” for specific cases and are suitable for either capacity or flux parameters. The degree of identifiability tends to vary between processes and models, but evapotranspiration parameters are generally highly identifiable with water-balance related metrics. The more complex a model is (e.g. mHM, SWAT+), the more difficult it is to determine parameter identifiabilities.In conclusion our study shows that a set of contrasting performance metrics and signature measures are needed to represent the whole hydrological system and to accurately identify the parameters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".