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Record W4408430997 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13948

Quantifying Peatland Ecohydrological Resilience to Drought and Wildfire by Thinking Outside the Bog 

2025· preprint· en· W4408430997 on OpenAlexaff
J. M. Waddington, Paul Moore, Owen F. Sutton, Alex Furukawa, Marcus Moore, Gregory J. Verkaik, Brandon Van Huizen, SOPHIE WILKINSON

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicPeatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser UniversityMcMaster University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPeatResilience (materials science)BogEnvironmental scienceGeographyPsychological resiliencePhysical geographyHydrology (agriculture)GeologyPsychologyArchaeologyPhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Peatlands are globally important long-term sinks of carbon, however there is concern that climate change-mediated drought will weaken their carbon sink function due to enhanced decomposition and moss moisture stress. Furthermore, heightened drought will also increase peat combustion loss during wildfire leading to peatland degradation and a potential ecosystem regime shift. Despite research developments on ecohydrological tipping points in semi-arid ecosystems, research in peatlands on the wet end of the ecosystem continuum has been “bogged down” (pun fully intended) by the traditional conceptual models of peatland hydrology and ecology. The consequences of this thinking loom large, given that northern peatlands face increases in the severity, areal extent, and frequency of climate-mediated (e.g., wildfire, drought) and land-use (e.g., drainage, flooding, and mining) disturbances, placing the future integrity of these critical ecosystem services in jeopardy.In this presentation we explore the need for “thinking outside the bog” to quantify the ecohydrological tipping points to drought and wildfire. We argue that peatland ecohydrological resilience is a non-linear function of water storage dynamics and that water table data or peat moisture data alone are insufficient to capture this hydrological complexity. Given that the ability of Sphagnum moss to resist drought is largely a function of the rate of water loss by evaporation, the rate of upward water supply from the water table, and the water storage properties of the peat matrix, we suggest that ecohydrological resilience can be quantified by the magnitude and duration of the disconnect between the water table and near-surface peat. We discuss ways to measure ecohydrological resilience and explore simple metrics that reveal when critical tipping points have been exceeded and the implications this has for carbon storage and fluxes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.009

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.279
Teacher spread0.256 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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