MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4408438602 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5512

Development and evaluation of the probability density distribution for mixed layer depth over the global oceans

2025· preprint· en· W4408438602 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Sergey Gulev, Vladimir Kukushkin, Anne‐Marie Tréguier

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicSpatial and Panel Data Analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsProbability density functionPercentileArgoStatisticsEnvironmental scienceProbability distributionSpatial distributionVariance (accounting)ClimatologyMeteorologyMathematicsGeologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Development of theoretical probability density function (PDF) for MLD over the oceans is important, as such a function provides a novel avenue for diagnostics of the numerical experiments with ocean GCMs and for comparison of the model results with observational data such as Argo floats. We built a new PDF based upon the Censored Modified Fisher-Tippet distribution (CMFT PDF herein). CMFT PDF represents a 2.5 – parameter distribution with the shape and location parameters steering the PDF and a pre-defined minimum of sample. CMFT distribution provides explicit equations for the mean and variance and also allows for estimating extreme values of MLD corresponding to high percentiles. A newly developed CMFT PDF was applied to GLORYS12 reanalysis to diagnose the characteristics of MLD in terms of MLD statistics. For application we used 3-degree spatial averaging of GLORIS12 profiles to provide the results which can further analyzed and intercompared to different alternative MLD estimates. This provided quite a rich sample which was further used for computation of the PDF parameters and higher order percentiles over the global oceans. This analysis shows that characteristics of probability density distributions are quite different for different regions with e.g. Labrador Sea demonstrating much heavier tails compared to the Irminger Sea and the NAC. Extreme values of MLD for March can amount to more than 3000 meters in the Labrador Sea. This provides an effective diagnostic approach for intercomparison of different model experiments and also for validation of the model results against observational data, such as e.g. Argo buoys. We also provide the analysis of climate variability of MLD statistics derived from CMFT PDF demonstrating in particular different tendencies in the mean and extreme MLD values. Further we also discuss the links between the statistics of the ocean MLD with those of surface fluxes as well as atmospheric variability.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.046
Threshold uncertainty score0.425

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.099
GPT teacher head0.287
Teacher spread0.188 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same topicSpatial and Panel Data AnalysisFrench-language works237,207