Bibliographic record
Abstract
The TCRE relationship underlies the necessity of net zero emissions for climate stabilization and the utility of carbon budgets as a policy tool. TCRE emerges near universally from Earth system models, and is consistent with observations. However, recent work has systematically dismantled the leading hypothesis explaining the phenomenon, concluding “that this proportionality is not amenable to a simple physical explanation, but rather arises because of the complex interplay of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes.'' (Gillett, 2023). Here we set two intermediate complexity Earth system models (EMICs) to abiotic states, then turn on broad components of Earth's biogeochemical cycles one at a time to see which combination of processes cause TCRE to emerge.We find that TCRE emerges when ocean alkalinity is set to observed values, without life on land. TCRE likewise emerges independently when the terrestrial biosphere is turned on, with the ocean in an abiotic low alkalinity state. Idealized experiments with the EMICs show that TCRE occurs for configurations of the Earth system where characteristic timescales of carbon absorption and heat absorption are nearly the same. Our results suggest that the emergence of TCRE does in-fact rely on a simple physical mechanism, but why the living components of Earth system are matching the characteristic timescale of carbon absorption to that of heat remains mysterious.Gillett, N.P.: Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes. Nature Communications 14(1), 6466 (2023)
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".