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Record W4408438745 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6110

Icebergs, Genealogy and Jigsaw Puzzles

2025· preprint· en· W4408438745 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ben Evans, Andrew J. Fleming, Alan A. Lowe, J. Scott Hosking

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
TopicForensic and Genetic Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsJigsawIcebergGenealogyGeographyHistoryMathematicsMathematics educationMeteorologySea ice

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Accurate estimates of iceberg populations, disintegration rates and iceberg movement are essential to understand ice sheet contributions to global sea level change, effects of freshwater inputs on ocean circulations and heat balances. Furthermore, there are operational imperatives to predict iceberg drift and fragmentation in order to ensure the safety and efficiency of polar shipping. The dynamics, persistence, fragmentation rates, melt rates and dispersal of icebergs are, however, poorly understood due to a lack of automated approaches for monitoring them.We present an automated iceberg tracking approach that is capable of reconstructing iceberg paths, fragmentations and ultimately lineages through multiple generations based on satellite radar imagery. The method offers scope for the first time to relate iceberg fragments back to their original source computationally, which will allow scalable deployment and the development of improved predictive iceberg drift and disintegration models and a better understanding of contributions to nutrient and freshwater distributions. Tracking is developed using the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection (CI2D3) database. This contains manually-delineated observations of large tabular icebergs in the Canadian Arctic between 2008 and 2012 based on RADARSAT-1 and -2 imagery. Critically, CI2D3 documents the lineages of icebergs across fragmentation events and therefore provides a unique ground control dataset allowing evaluation of tracker performance.Tracking of unchanging icebergs is achieved using a Bayesian tracking algorithm that makes linkages based upon a variety of geometric shape descriptors. Tracking across fragmentation events minimises Dynamic Time Warping distances between residual perimeter curves for candidate fragments and potential parents. This enables the matching of noisy, partial geometries and the automatic tessellation of fragments at one time step into the outline of their parent in a preceding observation irrespective of the intervening drift patterns. We evaluate tracker performance against bespoke metrics and those developed for cell tracking challenges that include mitotic division.The system provides a generalisable geospatial tracking methodology based on object geometries that is applicable to other contexts and questions as well as a novel means of reconciling global invariances in geometries when conducting shape fingerprinting and matching.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.210
Threshold uncertainty score0.764

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.002
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.305
Teacher spread0.292 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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