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Record W4408475315 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9227

Quantifying past subglacial methane storage and emissions under the Fennoscandian ice sheet by means of historic data from hydrocarbon industry

2025· preprint· en· W4408475315 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Zhen Li, Thomas Kempka

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicCryospheric studies and observations
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMethaneMethane emissionsEnvironmental scienceAntarctic ice sheetHydrocarbonGeologyFossil fuelEarth sciencePetroleum engineeringOceanographyPhysical geographyMining engineeringGreenhouse gasCryosphereWaste managementGeographyEngineeringChemistrySea ice

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Large-scale methane releases from geological hydrocarbon seepage and the dissociation of subseafloor gas hydrates under shallow waters are important drivers of atmospheric methane concentration increases and global warming. However, the processes, timescales, and fluxes involved in such emissions remain insufficiently constrained. In this study, we redeploy historic oil and gas industry datasets—including well logs, seismic data, as well as reservoir temperature and pressure data—to reveal reservoir-scale methane leakage, storage and release dynamics in the Håkjerringdjupet area at the offshore continental margin of Norway beneath the past Fennoscandian ice sheet during the last glacial maximum.Our numerical approach considers glacial loading causing the overpressurization of a shallow gas reservoir, driving the expulsion of methane-rich fluids through faulted zones and into subglacial sediments. Glacially-driven pressure increments led to extensive methane hydrate formation within these sediments, storing carbon and significantly improving basal traction. Laboratory shear-strength measurements (Spangenberg et al., 2020), integrated with subglacial hydrate formation modelling (Li et al., 2022, 2023), indicate a minimum hydrate saturation to regulate glacial flow, with the subglacial hydrate system storing ~0.48 Gt of methane in Håkjerringdjupet. During deglaciation, we estimate that ~120–240 Tg of methane released by hydrate dissociation may have reached the atmosphere shortly after the last glacier retreated (about 16,000 years before the present).Our findings highlight how legacy industry well data and conventional oil and gas technologies can be harnessed to advance understanding of subglacial carbon storage and fluid migration in response to climate change. Our work provides an insightful Pleistocene analogue for studying contemporary ice-sheet-driven methane storage and release, informing strategies for sustainable carbon management in the transition towards net zero emissions.References:Li, Z., Spangenberg, E., Schicks, J. M., and Kempka, T.: Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic, Energies, 15, 4986, https://doi.org/10.3390/en15144986, 2022.Li, Z., Chabab, E., Spangenberg, E., Schicks, J. M., and Kempka, T.: Geologic controls on the genesis of the Arctic permafrost and sub-permafrost methane hydrate-bearing system in the Beaufort–Mackenzie Delta, Front. Earth Sci., 11, 1148765, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1148765, 2023.Spangenberg, E., Heeschen, K. U., Giese, R., and Schicks, J. M.: “Ester”—A new ring-shear-apparatus for hydrate-bearing sediments, Review of Scientific Instruments, 91, 064503, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5138696, 2020.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.382
Threshold uncertainty score0.759

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.088
GPT teacher head0.284
Teacher spread0.196 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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