Moisture sources and transport pathways of summertime intense extratropical cyclones in the North-Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Extratropical cyclones are essential for the redistribution of energy, moisture, and momentum from the equator to the poles. Although wintertime extratropical cyclones are relatively well studied, less is known about summertime cyclones. Therefore, this research aims to improve our understanding of how summertime extratropical cyclones in the Northern Atlantic shape the global water cycle. More specifically, we focused on determining the moisture sources of these cyclones and analysed how precipitating air parcels were transported to the cyclone center. Changes in the moisture uptake and transport characteristics during the cyclone life cycle were also evaluated. To this end, 8-day backward trajectories were computed for the 20% most intense storms for three different stages in their life cycle: intensification, time of maximum intensity, and decay. Trajectory calculations were performed for all precipitating air parcels in a 500 km radius surrounding the cyclone center using the Lagrangian analysis tool LAGRANTO. Subsequently, moisture uptakes along the trajectories of only precipitating parcels were identified using the moisture source diagnostic WaterSip. We find that the bulk of the precipitation falls close to the cyclone center and along the fronts, mostly during the intensification phase. The origins of this moisture correspond to areas of high evaporation, with hotspots over the Gulf Stream region and its northeastern extension, and continental sources for cyclones in the Labrador Sea. The source distance is large during intensification, while local evaporation becomes more important during decay. Finally, we discuss the differences between summer and winter, as they have different dependencies on preceding "parent" cyclones for moisture supply.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".