Identifying Data-Driven Clinical Subgroups for Cervical Cancer Prevention With Machine Learning: Population-Based, External, and Diagnostic Validation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Cervical cancer remains a major global health issue. Personalized, data-driven cervical cancer prevention (CCP) strategies tailored to phenotypic profiles may improve prevention and reduce disease burden. Objective: This study aimed to identify subgroups with differential cervical precancer or cancer risks using machine learning, validate subgroup predictions across datasets, and propose a computational phenomapping strategy to enhance global CCP efforts. Methods: We explored the data-driven CCP subgroups by applying unsupervised machine learning to a deeply phenotyped, population-based discovery cohort. We extracted CCP-specific risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cervical cancer through weighted logistic regression analyses providing odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% CIs. We trained a supervised machine learning model and developed pathways to classify individuals before evaluating its diagnostic validity and usability on an external cohort. Results: This study included 551,934 women (median age, 49 years) in the discovery cohort and 47,130 women (median age, 37 years) in the external cohort. Phenotyping identified 5 CCP subgroups, with CCP4 showing the highest carcinoma prevalence. CCP2-4 had significantly higher risks of CIN2+ (CCP2: OR 2.07 [95% CI: 2.03-2.12], CCP3: 3.88 [3.78-3.97], and CCP4: 4.47 [4.33-4.63]) and CIN3+ (CCP2: 2.10 [2.05-2.14], CCP3: 3.92 [3.82-4.02], and CCP4: 4.45 [4.31-4.61]) compared to CCP1 (P<.001), consistent with the direction of results observed in the external cohort. The proposed triple strategy was validated as clinically relevant, prioritizing high-risk subgroups (CCP3-4) for colposcopies and scaling human papillomavirus screening for CCP1-2. Conclusions: This study underscores the potential of leveraging machine learning algorithms and large-scale routine electronic health records to enhance CCP strategies. By identifying key determinants of CIN2+/CIN3+ risk and classifying 5 distinct subgroups, our study provides a robust, data-driven foundation for the proposed triple strategy. This approach prioritizes tailored prevention efforts for subgroups with varying risks, offering a novel and scalable tool to complement existing cervical cancer screening guidelines. Future work should focus on independent external and prospective validation to maximize the global impact of this strategy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.023 | 0.049 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".