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Record W4408659112 · doi:10.3390/philosophies10020034

Infinite Time and the Boltzmann Brain Hypothesis

2025· article· en· W4408659112 on OpenAlex
M. Joshua Mozersky

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenuePhilosophies · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicAdvanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics
Canadian institutionsQueen's University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPsychologyNeurosciencePhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Many argue that the standard understanding of the second law of thermodynamics combined with the supposition, backed by recent scientific evidence, that the future is infinite entails that one is, most likely, a momentary Boltzmann brain that will quickly disintegrate into the cosmos. The argument is as follows: (1) Given infinite time, the universe will eventually reach thermodynamic equilibrium; (2) once there, every possible fluctuation away from equilibrium, no matter how improbable, will recur, ad infinitum; (3) those fluctuations that create stable, long-lived creatures, such as we take ourselves to be, will be extremely rare compared to those that create short-lived brains that mistakenly think they are ordinary human beings; hence, by statistical reasoning, (4) one is, with overwhelming probability, just a fleeting instantiation of experience. I argue that this reasoning is invalid since it rests on an error regarding the relationship between infinite sets and their subsets. Once this error is eliminated, the power of the argument fades, and the evidence that we are ordinary human beings becomes decisive. Surprisingly, I find that the best argument for the Boltzmann brain hypothesis requires the assumption that the future is very long but finite.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.957
Threshold uncertainty score0.260

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.234
Teacher spread0.226 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it