Weather shocks, infant mortality, and adaptation: Experimental evidence from Uganda
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme weather events. Health is a primary channel through which climate change affects welfare. Yet, estimates of the mitigating effects of health system strengthening are largely missing. We combine data from a randomized trial inducing variation in healthcare access with naturally-occurring variation in growing-season precipitation to study the adaptive impact of community healthcare in a low-income country setting. The risk of infant death increases following low growing-season rainfall, but access to community healthcare reduces this risk by 46 %. Using our estimates coupled with projections from climatological models implies even larger potential adaptive effects. • Can community health workers (CHW) strengthen the climate resilience of health systems? • Infant mortality increases after low-rainfall seasons, but not in villages randomly assigned to CHW. • Climate change may lead to more frequent and severe droughts, increasing CHW benefits. • Primary healthcare investments can mitigate adverse weather shocks' impacts on infant mortality.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it