Predicting the epidemiological effects in the United Kingdom of moving from PCV13 to PCV15 in the routine pediatric 1+1 vaccination schedule
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Introduction In 2020 the UK National Immunization Programme reduced the pediatric dosing schedule for pneumococcal vaccination with PCV13 from 2 doses in infancy followed by a toddler dose (2+1 schedule) to 1 dose in infancy followed by a toddler dose (1+1 schedule). Real world data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) under the reduced dosing schedule is not available, nor is data on VE associated with higher valency vaccines, including PCV15. This analysis investigates changes in projected disease outcomes associated with potential reductions in VE against IPD with PCV13 and PCV15 under the 1+1 reduced dosing schedule. Methods A previously published dynamic transmission model was employed to project population-level IPD incidence under 1+1 pneumococcal vaccination dosing of children <2 years old with two different vaccine formulations, with maintenance of current adult and at-risk vaccination programs, under a range of assumptions regarding reduction of VE against IPD, over a 20-year timeline following the switch to the 1+1 schedule. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the sensitivity of model outcomes to potential changes in VE against IPD. Results Relative to 2019 estimates, overall IPD incidence was predicted to increase over the time horizon for both PCV13 and PCV15 programs, however vaccination with PCV15 was estimated to lead to a smaller increase over all age groups than vaccination with PCV13. Both vaccine formulations led to projected decreases in IPD attributed to common PCV13/PCV15 serotypes in children <2 years old. Sensitivity analyses reflect results were robust to potential changes in VE against IPD. Conclusions The current analysis predicts switching the routinely administered pediatric pneumococcal vaccine from PCV13 to PCV15 within the UK’s 1+1 dosing schedule would not only reduce IPD in the pediatric population but would also lead to population-level reductions in IPD due to indirect protection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".