Deep learning informed multimodal fusion of radiology and pathology to predict outcomes in HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aim to predict outcomes of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), a subtype of head and neck cancer characterized with improved clinical outcome and better response to therapy. Pathology and radiology focused AI-based prognostic models have been independently developed for OPSCC, but their integration incorporating both primary tumour (PT) and metastatic cervical lymph node (LN) remains unexamined. METHODS: We investigate the prognostic value of an AI approach termed the swintransformer-based multimodal and multi-region data fusion framework (SMuRF). SMuRF integrates features from CT corresponding to the PT and LN, as well as whole slide pathology images from the PT as a predictor of survival and tumour grade in HPV-associated OPSCC. SMuRF employs cross-modality and cross-region window based multi-head self-attention mechanisms to capture interactions between features across tumour habitats and image scales. FINDINGS: Developed and tested on a cohort of 277 patients with OPSCC with matched radiology and pathology images, SMuRF demonstrated strong performance (C-index = 0.81 for DFS prediction and AUC = 0.75 for tumour grade classification) and emerged as an independent prognostic biomarker for DFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 17, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.9-58, p < 0.0001) and tumour grade (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7, 95% CI, 1.4-10.5, p = 0.01) controlling for other clinical variables (i.e., T-, N-stage, age, smoking, sex and treatment modalities). Importantly, SMuRF outperformed unimodal models derived from radiology or pathology alone. INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the potential of multimodal deep learning in accurately stratifying OPSCC risk, informing tailored treatment strategies and potentially refining existing treatment algorithms. FUNDING: The National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".