Marine Heat Waves and Cold Spells Along an Urbanized Coast
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the coastal region along the east coast of the United States, is highly vulnerable to climate extremes such as sea level rise, hurricanes, land-based heat waves, and extreme precipitation events. The MAB is especially at risk because it is one of the most densely populated regions in the United States, with multiple major metropolitan areas directly on the coast. The MAB also has extensive commercial fisheries, including some of the most lucrative commercial shellfish fisheries in the country. These fisheries are worth nearly two billion U.S. dollars annually and employ more than half a million people. These non-motile fisheries are highly sensitive to temperature variability, and these species often use temperature cues to signal important biological responses, like spawning. In response to climate change, marine extreme temperature events are changing in frequency, duration, and intensity. These extreme events are characterized as anomalous warm- or cold-water events known as marine heat waves (MHW) or marine cold spells (MCS), respectively. The widely accepted definition of MHW and MCS events are when sea surface temperatures reach above the 90th percentile or below the 10th percentile of a regional historical climatology for at least five days with no more than two days below the threshold. MHW and MCS events can be devastating to regional ecosystems, fisheries, and aquaculture due to the rapid onset of extreme thermal stress organisms may experience. To date, there have been no named MCS events within the MAB. During the 2024 boreal summer months, an MCS event was identified based on both observational data and communication with the regional commercial fisheries within the northern portion of the MAB. We hypothesize based on initial results from analysis of the NASA GOES-16 satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data, the NOAA National Data Buoy Center SST data, and several cross-shelf deployments of Slocum Gliders, autonomous underwater vehicles, that this MCS event is a result of increased southward flow of Labrador Sea water. This cold water was then upwelled to the surface within the northern MAB in response to persistent wind. Ongoing analyses to determine the drivers and impacts of this MCS event include surface currents from high-frequency radars and subsurface currents from a data-assimilative, MAB-specific Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) output known as Doppio. This research aims to further address the drivers and impacts of the first-named MCS event in the MAB to increase global understanding of these poorly explored extreme temperature events that can have drastic impacts on local ecosystems and fisheries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".