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Record W4408842823 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-1148

QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: Teleconnections of the QBO

2025· preprint· en· W4408842823 on OpenAlexaff
Hiroaki Naoe, Jorge L. García‐Franco, Chang‐Hyun Park, Mario Rodrigo, Froila M. Palmeiro, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Kohei Yoshida, James Anstey, Javier García‐Serrano, Seok‐Woo Son, Yoshio Kawatani, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Chih‐Chieh Chen, Anne A. Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Clara Orbe, Scott Osprey, Mijeong Park, Jadwiga H. Richter, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicAtmospheric Ozone and Climate
Canadian institutionsEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
FundersJapan Society for the Promotion of ScienceMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and TechnologyEnvironmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
KeywordsTeleconnectionOscillation (cell signaling)Quasi-biennial oscillationEnvironmental scienceClimatologyEl Niño Southern OscillationPhysicsGeologyChemistry

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract. This study examines Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnections and their modulation by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using a multi-model ensemble of the Atmospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (APARC) QBO initiative (QBOi) models. Some difficulties arise in examining observed QBO-ENSO teleconnections from distinguishing the QBO and ENSO influences outside of the QBO region, due to aliasing between the QBO and ENSO over the historical record. To separate the QBO and ENSO signals, simulations are conducted with annually-repeating prescribed sea-surface temperatures corresponding to idealized El Niño or La Nina conditions (QBOi EN and LN experiments, respectively). In the Arctic winter climate, higher frequencies of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are found in EN than LN. The frequency differences in SSW between QBO westerly (QBO-W) and QBO easterly (QBO-E) are indistinguishable, suggesting that the polar vortex responses to the QBO are much weaker than those to the ENSO in these models. The Asia-Pacific subtropical jet (APJ) shifts significantly equatorward during QBO-W compared to QBO-E in observations, while the APJ-shift is not robust across models, regardless of the ENSO phases. In the tropics, these experiments do not show a robust or coherent QBO influence on precipitation. The sign and spatial pattern of the precipitation response vary widely across models and experiments, indicating that any potential QBO signal is strongly modulated by the prevailing phases of the ENSO. The QBO teleconnection to the Walker circulation around boreal summer/autumn is investigated to identify the strongest signal in each model. It is found that the upper-level westerly and lower-level easterly anomalies in the equatorial troposphere over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific are detected in the observations and most models in the La Nina year. Overall, the QBO can modulate the zonal circulation over the tropical Indian-Pacific oceans, with its impact varying depending on the ENSO phase.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.009

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.018
GPT teacher head0.249
Teacher spread0.231 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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