Predicting pathogen evolution and immune evasion in the age of artificial intelligence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The genomic diversification of viral pathogens during viral epidemics and pandemics represents a major adaptive route for infectious agents to circumvent therapeutic and public health initiatives. Historically, strategies to address viral evolution have relied on responding to emerging variants after their detection, leading to delays in effective public health responses. Because of this, a long-standing yet challenging objective has been to forecast viral evolution by predicting potentially harmful viral mutations prior to their emergence. The promises of artificial intelligence (AI) coupled with the exponential growth of viral data collection infrastructures spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, have resulted in a research ecosystem highly conducive to this objective. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic accelerating the development of pandemic mitigation and preparedness strategies, many of the methods discussed here were designed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, most of these pipelines were intentionally designed to be adaptable across RNA viruses, with several strategies already applied to multiple viral species. In this review, we explore recent breakthroughs that have facilitated the forecasting of viral evolution in the context of an ongoing pandemic, with particular emphasis on deep learning architectures, including the promising potential of language models (LM). The approaches discussed here employ strategies that leverage genomic, epidemiologic, immunologic and biological information.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".