Does an Import Tariff Negatively Affect Economic Growth?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An import tariff raises the price of imports causing a rise in producer surplus and a fall in consumer surplus on importable products inducing their domestic producers to increase production, which then raises the demand for the factor used intensively and lowers that for the factors used less intensively in their production. Also, according to the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, under the assumption of full-employment and constant capital-labor ratio, this leads to a rise in the real earnings of the factor used intensively and a fall in the real earnings of the factors used less intensively of the products. If the total of gains in producer surplus and earnings of the intensive factor is more than the loss in consumer surplus plus and earnings of less intensive factors, the nation experiences a net economic growth. We apply the VAR model on US data over the period 1990-2020 and finds an import tariff to have no impact on U.S. income and, therefore, on U.S. economic growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".