Fluvial erosion linked to warming in the Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Warming temperatures have been invoked as a potential mechanism for widespread change to the erosional regime in Arctic regions, where large portions of watersheds are underlain by permanently frozen soils. Yet recent site-specific studies have delivered conflicting results regarding how erosion along Arctic rivers has responded to past temperature increase, and how erosion will respond to rising temperatures in the future. Here we use 92,009 observations of fluvial erosion across 13,400 stream kilometers in the Mackenzie River watershed to show that erosion rates along rivers across the Canadian Arctic are positively correlated to temperature and uncorrelated with vegetative cover over the satellite record (1985-present). While temperature’s erosive effect appears to be mediated by discharge, our results nevertheless suggest warming will lead to increased erosion in the Arctic but that the enhanced erosive regime may be less dramatic than earlier predictions. Increased temperatures in the Canadian Arctic are aligned with higher fluvial erosion, although this is mediated by fluvial discharge, according to analysis of geomorphic data from the Mackenzie River watershed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".