The long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in the CEMAC zone
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Empty 15 This study aims to analyze the long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), a grouping of six countries (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic, and Chad) forming a monetary union. The empirical analysis of annual data from the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) over the 1987-2016 period first enabled us to identify 22 episodes of fiscal consolidations in all the CEMAC zone countries during the above-mentioned period. Secondly, by adopting the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMLOS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) panel methods, our results show that fiscal consolidations have recessionary (Keynesian) effects on the CEMAC zone’s economy. Those effects are mainly due to fiscal consolidations that focus on reducing public expenditure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".