Prognostic Value of Retinal Microvascular Alterations Detected by Fundus Examination in Critically Ill Patients: A Meta-Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: The ocular fundus provides a unique window into the human microcirculation. Retinal microvascular alterations (RMVAs), such as hemorrhages, cotton wool spots, and vessel caliber changes, are observed in critically ill patients and may reflect systemic microvascular dysfunction, a key element in the pathophysiology of critical illness and organ failure. However, the prognostic significance of these findings in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting remains uncertain due to variability among individual studies. This meta-analysis aimed to synthesize existing evidence on the association between RMVAs detected by fundus examination and mortality in critically ill adult patients. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search across PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases for observational studies published between January 1st, 2013, and December 31st, 2023. Studies evaluating the association between RMVAs during ICU stay and mortality in adult ICU patients were included. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Data on the presence versus absence of any significant RMVA and mortality were pooled using a random-effects model to calculate an overall odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic and Cochrane's Q test. Results: Our search yielded 1,872 unique records, of which 28 were assessed in full text. Six cohort studies, published between 2015 and 2023, met the inclusion criteria, encompassing a total of 1,358 critically ill patients. The included studies varied in population characteristics (medical, surgical, mixed ICUs) and methods of RMVA assessment. The overall quality of included studies was moderate to good (median NOS score 7, range 6-8). The prevalence of any significant RMVA ranged from 18% to 45% across studies. The pooled analysis demonstrated a statistically significant association between the presence of any RMVA detected on fundus examination and increased odds of mortality (Pooled OR = 2.48; 95% CI: 1.65–3.71; p < 0.0001). Moderate heterogeneity was observed among the studies (I² = 58%; p = 0.03 for Cochran's Q test). Conclusion: The presence of retinal microvascular alterations identified through fundus examination during ICU stay is significantly associated with an increased risk of short-term mortality in critically ill adult patients. These alterations may serve as an accessible marker of underlying systemic microvascular pathology and disease severity. Further large-scale, prospective studies with standardized protocols are warranted to confirm these findings and explore the utility of specific retinal signs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".