Trends and Variability in Depth and Spiciness of Subsurface Isopycnals on the Vancouver Island Continental Shelf and Slope
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The waters over the southern Vancouver Island shelf and slope are productive, economically important regions. The circulation is highly dynamic through variable mixing of both younger subarctic and older southern water masses, and significant local upwelling and downwelling regimes. We take advantage of three time series that cover more than three decades: the La‐Perouse, Line‐P, and CalCOFI time series, each covering at least 37 years (1984–2021). We investigate subsurface salinity, temperature, and depth observations to study seasonal and interannual variability in isopycnal heave and spiciness, and evaluate possible trends. The 26.6 kg m−3 isopycnal is the deepest isopycnal that is regularly upwelled onto the Vancouver Island shelf (above 200 m), shoaling over 100 m seasonally. Spiciness on the 26.6 isopycnal is highest in winter, but seasonal variability is much smaller than the interannual variability, which itself is two to three times smaller than the variability in adjacent subarctic waters and in the California Undercurrent further south, prior to their arrival in our study region. Spiciness in subsurface shelf waters appears to have been increasing over the past 37 years, by about half the magnitude of the increase in spiciness observed in the California Undercurrent water. In contrast, the subsurface slope shows no trend in spiciness but appears to be experiencing physical convergence, specifically an increase in the volume of water with a density of around 26.6 kg m−3, which has also been observed in the subarctic northeast Pacific, at Ocean Station Papa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".