VQLTI: Long-Term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with Physical Constraints
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting is crucial for early disaster warning and emergency decision-making. Numerous researchers have explored deep-learning methods to address computational and post-processing issues in operational forecasting. Regrettably, they exhibit subpar long-term forecasting capabilities. We use two strategies to enhance long-term forecasting. (1) By enhancing the matching between TC intensity and spatial information, we can improve long-term forecasting performance. (2) Incorporating physical knowledge and physical constraints can help mitigate the accumulation of forecasting errors. To achieve the above strategies, we propose the VQLTI framework. VQLTI transfers the TC intensity information to a discrete latent space while retaining the spatial information differences, using large-scale spatial meteorological data as conditions. Furthermore, we leverage the forecast from the weather prediction model FengWu to provide additional physical knowledge for VQLTI. Additionally, we calculate the potential intensity (PI) to impose physical constraints on the latent variables. In the global long-term TC intensity forecasting, VQLTI achieves state-of-the-art results for the 24h to 120h, with the MSW (Maximum Sustained Wind) forecast error reduced by 35.65%-42.51% compared to ECMWF-IFS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".