High-resolution analysis of the varved succession at Crawford lake across the base of the proposed Crawfordian stage and Anthropocene series
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Four years after the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) voted to work toward defining the Anthropocene series/epoch with a base in the mid-20th C, the varved sediments of Crawford Lake (Milton, ON, Canada) were selected as the Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) candidate. The initial major rise in activity of 239 + 240 Pu had been selected as the primary chronostratigraphic marker to define the base of the Anthropocene, but the precise year when this occurred could not be determined from measurements of samples combining multiple varves. Individual varves from freeze cores collected in April 2023 provide annual resolution for bomb radionuclides, allowing the varve age model to be refined, former assignments determined to have been 1 year too old. The increase in 239 + 240 Pu activities (calculated from atom concentrations of 239 Pu and 240 Pu measured using Accelerated Mass Spectrometry) of 0.0031 Bq/g between varves now assigned to 1951 and 1952 is consistent with the onset of thermonuclear weapons testing on November 1, 1952, so the proposed base for the Anthropocene is at the contact between the light- and dark-coloured laminae deposited in 1952 CE (17.5 cm in core CRA23-BC-1F-B). Sharply lower 239 + 240 Pu and 137 Cs activities capture the moratorium from November 1958 to September 1961 before rising quickly to peak activities of 239 + 240 Pu in 1963 CE. Analysis of individual varves with varying amounts of organic matter and inorganic calcite illustrates the influence of lithology on organic proxies, but the upcore trend toward depleted values of δ 15 N through the 20th C reflects increased fossil fuel combustion worldwide. An inflection point in δ 15 N around 1911 CE is attributed the global impact of the Haber-Bosch process and establishment of nearby steel mills, and another in the early 1950s attributed to the Great Acceleration to which the tipping point in the Earth system is attributed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".