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Record W4409467695 · doi:10.1111/jtsa.12828

Change Point Analysis for Functional Data Using Empirical Characteristic Functionals

2025· article· en· W4409467695 on OpenAlexafffund
Lajos Horváth, Gregory Rice, Jeremy VanderDoes

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Time Series Analysis · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsMathematicsPoint (geometry)Applied mathematicsFunctional data analysisStatisticsEconometricsGeometry

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT We develop a new method to detect change points in the distribution of functional data based on integrated CUSUM processes of empirical characteristic functionals. Asymptotic results are presented under conditions allowing for low‐order moments and serial dependence in the data establishing the limiting null‐distribution of the proposed test statistics, as well as their consistency to detect and localize change points in the distribution of functional data. A key consideration in defining these test statistics is the measure used to integrate the CUSUM process over function space. We show that using a measure generated by Brownian motion leads to generally consistent tests. Further, using this measure allows for computationally simple approximations of the necessary integrals, as well as simulation and permutation‐based methods to calibrate detection thresholds for change point analysis. The proposed methods are thoroughly investigated and compared to other existing functional data change point methods in simulation experiments, and are further applied to detect change points in models for continuous electricity demand and high‐frequency asset price returns.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.478
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.006
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.143
GPT teacher head0.398
Teacher spread0.255 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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