Fake Solidarity? Actions Taken by the Russian Opposition Since the Outbreak of Full-Scale War in Ukraine
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The article aims to show the actions the Russian nonsystemic opposition took after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. We prove that the Russian opposition has been deeply divided since that time. It includes various leaders and factions who want to play an essential role in post-Putin Russia. It also presents multiple opinions on Russia’s internal and external policies. On the other hand, since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the Russian opposition has been more visible both in Eastern and Western Europe. The article is divided into two parts. In the first part, we establish the genesis of the current nonsystemic opposition in Russia and its exile. We also present the most well-known oppositionists in the Russian political scene. In the second part, we analyze the meetings and conferences of the Russian opposition in exile from March 2022 to February 2024. It enables us to find the plans of the Russian opposition for rebuilding a political system in post-Putin Russia. The article is based on desk research, historical methods, and thematic analysis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".