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Record W4409530524 · doi:10.1038/s44271-025-00246-1

Anti-immigration conspiracy beliefs are associated with endorsement of conventional and violent actions opposing immigration and attitudes towards democracy across 21 countries

2025· article· en· W4409530524 on OpenAlex
Emma F. Thomas, Christina Stothard, Tomasz Besta, Gülçin Akbaş, Julia C. Becker, Maja Becker, Tymofii Brik, María Chayinska, Makiko Deguchi, Sandesh Dhakal, Kaltrina Kelmendi, Anna Kende, Soledad de Lemus, Paul Le Dornat, Magdalena Iwanowska, Angela K.‐Y. Leung, Sarah E. Martiny, Rie Mizuki, Danny Osborne, Marek Palace, Maura Pozzi, Carlo Pistoni, Raja Intan Arifah binti Raja Reza Shah, Pravash Kumar Raut, Saba Safdar, Katherine Stroebe, Dijana Sulejmanović, Eugene Y. J. Tee, Gonneke Ton, Özden Melis Uluğ, Ana Urbiola, Nathan Weber, Anna Włodarczyk, Martijn van Zomeren

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueCommunications Psychology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicMisinformation and Its Impacts
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Guelph
FundersAgencia Estatal de InvestigaciónNarodowa Agencja Wymiany AkademickiejMinisterio de Ciencia e InnovaciónMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades
KeywordsImmigrationDemocracyCriminologyPsychologySocial psychologyPolitical scienceDemographic economicsLawEconomicsPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Despite widespread speculation that conspiracy beliefs foster anti-democratic outcomes, the empirical picture is inconsistent. To clarify this literature, we examine the relationships that conspiracy beliefs have with commitment to reactionary action and criticism of democracy, focusing on a global issue: immigration. We expected that people who believe that their government uses immigration to diversify the population against citizens’ wishes (anti-migration conspiracy beliefs) would be more committed to conventional and violent action to oppose immigration, and more critical of democracy. However, societal-level factors – economic performance and democratic functioning – were expected to influence (strengthen, weaken) these links. As hypothesized, multi-level analyses (N = 4353) from 21 countries revealed that economic prosperity attenuated the positive link between anti-migration conspiracy beliefs and commitment to reactionary action. Paradoxically, more democratic societies evidenced stronger links between conspiracy beliefs and conventional (but not violent) action to oppose immigration. Thus, more democratic societies appear to invite conventional forms of action to oppose immigration which may, in turn, weaken democratic norms of inclusion. Results highlight the interplay of individual- and societal-level factors underlying illiberal movements. The link between conspiracy beliefs and reactionary movements that promote intolerance and undermine democracy was investigated in 21 countries. Economic prosperity and democratic functioning moderated the positive link between anti-migration conspiracy beliefs and commitment to reactionary action.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.467
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.062
GPT teacher head0.427
Teacher spread0.364 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it