Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. We describe three leading modes of deseasonalized water vapor variability in the tropopause layer (147–68 hPa) above the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) based on Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and five meteorological and composition-focused reanalyses. The first mode, which describes regional-scale moist or dry anomalies on interannual scales, is separated into a linear trend and detrended interannual variability. Although the reanalysis products all show an increasing trend in tropopause-layer water vapor over 2005–2021, the spatial pattern and sign of the trend disagree between Aura MLS and the reanalyses. The regional water vapor budget indicates that the reanalysis trend originates outside the monsoon region, beyond the domain of our analysis. Interannual variability is otherwise consistent, arising mainly from the pre-monsoon influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation. The second mode features anomalies arcing from the southwestern to northeastern quadrants of the anticyclone coupled with weaker opposing anomalies in the southeast, while the third mode features a horizontal dipole oriented east-to-west. These two modes often vary in quadrature due to the influences of quasi-biweekly waves on deep convective activity, but also appear independently when other modes of convective variability manifest in similar centers of action. Although questions remain regarding the linear trend, mean biases, and the weak and possibly adverse influence of data assimilation, the consistency between Aura MLS and reanalysis-derived modes of variability in UTLS water vapor in this region shows that atmospheric reanalyses are increasingly able to capture the processes controlling water vapor near the tropopause.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.015 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.263 | 0.174 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".