Application of Time Series Analysis Model in Monitoring Electricity Consumption Behaviour and Anti-Theft of Electricity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
stimation method based on semi-supervised learning and time series analysis prediction. The electricity consumption data of power theft users are extracted as time series data, and in order to achieve multi-step prediction, MMD is utilized to improve the LSSVR semi-supervised learning algorithm. In addition, a perturbation term is introduced to optimize the convergence effect of the artificial bee colony algorithm, and a time series prediction algorithm based on improved artificial bee colony is established. Bringing in the power theft monitoring process to identify whether the user has power theft behavior, using the real power consumption dataset as the experimental validation data, comparing the identification accuracy of the prediction model. Predict the potential power theft of each user, solve the optimization model with the goal of optimal economic efficiency, and determine the actual ranking order of power theft users. The improved time series prediction algorithm proposed in this paper has a global error of 0.0003 and 0.0027 in dataset 1 and dataset 2, respectively, with the lowest global error and the highest overall accuracy of PSE prediction. And the algorithm predicts the list of users to be scheduled is basically the same as the list of users determined by the real PSE, which can achieve the maximum economic benefits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".