A study of the impact of corporate market forecasting capability on the accuracy of strategic decision-making based on computational analysis of business data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study focuses on the computational analysis of business data, constructs a market prediction framework that integrates K-means clustering, feature standardization and improved N-BEATS model, and verifies its effect on the accuracy of enterprise strategic decision-making based on multi-source data.The study selects real-time transaction data and weather data from 800 merchants under Alibaba, extracts key features through standardization and correlation analysis, and improves the model by introducing topological features and multi-attention mechanism, which significantly optimizes the time series prediction accuracy and reduces the RMSE by 18.6%.The empirical analysis for tissue paper category shows that the forecast error rate of the time series decomposition method is only 0.58%, which is better than the traditional trend method and seasonal index method.Through the regression analysis of 328 business managers' questionnaires, data-driven analysis β=0.617, p<0.001 and innovative forecasting β=0.594, p<0.001 have a significant positive effect on strategic decisionmaking accuracy and consensus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.045 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".