Second-generation education and earnings across birth cohorts: ethno-racial variations in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We assess the educational and earnings outcomes of second-generation racial minorities in Canada across successive birth-cohorts from the 1960s to the 1990s, using data from Canadian Censuses and the National Household Survey for 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021. We compare South Asian, Chinese, and Black second-generation individuals to third-or-higher generation White Canadians (the mainstream), focusing on persons aged 26–35 to capture early-career trajectories. Findings show that educational attainment improves across cohorts, particularly for women. Nevertheless, significant divergences emerge among racial-minority groups, with Chinese and South Asians maintaining high educational levels, and the Black group showing relative declines across cohorts. Earnings decline for most second-generation groups compared to the mainstream, despite a higher proportion holding university degrees, with declines especially pronounced among Black men and women. We discuss implications for longer-term processes of assimilation and segmentation among ethno-racial minorities in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".