How US and Canadian Consumers Shape Bilateral Trade: A Focus on Reexports and Domestic Exports
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Consumer behavior can play a crucial role in shaping bilateral trade balances. However, traditional trade balance metrics often overlook purchasing behavior on different types of exports. By aggregating total exports, these metrics may fail to differentiate between high-value-added domestic exports and low-value-added reexports, neglecting the effects of demand for these exported goods. This study addresses this gap by decomposing total exports and applying a nonlinear ARDL model to examine how exchange rate movements affect the demand for various US exports to Canada. Identifying which types of exports are more influenced by Canadian consumer behavior is essential for developing effective trade policies and marketing strategies. These insights can help policymakers’ product positioning and market segmentation to adapt to changing consumer preferences and exchange rate dynamics. Empirical findings: (i) the improvement effect of depreciated USD is more on the US low-value-added-reexport-based TB than on high-value-added-domestic-export-based TB, (ii): related to (i), it can be interpreted that Canadian consumers are more sensitive to US reexported commodities than domestic commodities due to the appreciated CAD; (iii): The shift of Canadian consumers toward low-value-added goods due to a depreciated CAD can indicate that the price-sensitive consumer segment is larger in the Canadian market.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".