Human papillomavirus (HPV) related oropharyngeal cancers in Canada: A multicenter retrospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a risk for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), now the leading HPV-related cancer in males in Canada. P16 positivity is a marker of HPV positivity. Since 2015, all major Canadian cancer centers perform routine p16 tumor marker testing of OPCs to define their HPV status but recent data on the HPV-attributable fraction for OPC in Canada do not exist. A retrospective chart review was conducted of all squamous cell OPC cases in patients 18 years and older diagnosed from 2016 to 2020 in 4 major Canadian hospital-based regional oncology centers to determine the HPV attributable fraction for OPC in Canada using p16 as a surrogate marker for HPV. 1154 OPC cases were identified. Most patients (85.4%) were male; about one-third 26 (31.4%) had never smoked. Most OPC (80.6%) were P16 positive. p16 positivity was 27 associated with younger age (mean age p16+ 61.6 vs. p16- 66.5 years, p < 0.0001), male sex 28 (p16+ males 84.0% vs p16+ females 60.9%, p < 0.0001), lower tumor stage (Stage 1 p16+ 29 88.1% vs Stage 4 p16+ 69.4%, p < 0.001), and non-smoking (never smoked 92.3% vs past 30 smoker 82.8% vs current smoker 65.0%, p < 0.001). Logistic regression confirmed these 31 associations. This study, the largest cohort of Canadian patients with OPC yet reported, demonstrates the high attributable fraction for HPV-related OPC. HPV-related OPC was more likely in men, younger individuals, and never smokers. These findings highlight the burden of HPV-related OPC in Canada and support gender-neutral HPV vaccination as an important public health strategy to prevent head and neck cancer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".