From Export-Led to Consumption-Led Growth: The Evolution of the Canadian Growth Model Since the 1980s
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objective of this article is to leverage analytical insights from the growth model perspective to explore the evolution of Canada’s growth pattern from the 1980s to the late 2010s. The paper makes four empirically informed observations. First, although Canada’s growth prospects initially appeared to be closely tied to exports, its economy pivoted to consumption-led growth in the 2000s, where it stayed in the 2010s. Second, lawmakers facilitated housing financialization as a way to bolster domestic consumption until the global financial crisis of 2007–08. Third, although the financial crisis did not wreak havoc on the Canadian economy, policymakers responded prudently by moderating financialization in the housing market. Finally, rising income inequality, slower real wage growth, and higher housing-related expenses contributed to debt accumulation among lower-income households and to the slower growth of household consumption in the 2010s.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".