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Record W4409727684 · doi:10.1101/2025.04.12.648546

How to quantify immigration from community abundance data using the Neutral Community Model

2025· preprint· en· W4409727684 on OpenAlexafffund
Ramis Rafay, Eric W. Jones, David A. Sivak, Jane Fowler

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
TopicGut microbiota and health
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser University
FundersDivision of Mathematical SciencesNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsBiological dispersalInferenceAbundance (ecology)Ground truthSampling (signal processing)Variance (accounting)Bootstrapping (finance)OccupancyImmigrationCommunity structureEconometricsEcologyStatisticsComputer scienceMathematicsGeographyBiologyPopulationSociologyMachine learningArtificial intelligence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Biological communities are connected through dispersal, which regulates diversity across local and regional scales. However, dispersal is difficult to measure directly, limiting what is known about dispersal’s impact on species composition in complex communities. One method to measure dispersal employs the Neutral Community Model (NCM) to quantify how a local community is influenced by the immigration of individuals from a larger source community. Conveniently, the immigration rate N T m of the NCM can be fit from biological sequence abundance datasets, which are plentiful. Yet it is neither known if these estimated values reflect the ground truth, nor what sampling effort is required to yield accurate estimates. In this study we introduce two inference methods, a variance-based and a Dirichlet-Multinomial Log-Likelihood (DM-LL) method, to complement the established occupancy-based inference method. In simulations of communities that resemble activated sludge microbiomes, all inference methods were capable of estimating N T m within 10% of ground-truth, with the variance-based and DM-LL methods requiring less sampling effort. Accurate inferences require read depths greater than N T m in each sample. The three methods agree in their inferred N T m in simulations of communities experiencing weak non-neutral effects (e.g., selection), and in applications to an empirical dataset from wastewater activated sludge. Based on these findings, we propose practical sampling and methodological guidelines for quantifying immigration between highly diverse, complex communities using the NCM.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.009
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.042
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.009
Threshold uncertainty score0.049

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0090.042
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.003
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.070
GPT teacher head0.302
Teacher spread0.232 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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