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Hydrodynamic Modelling of Storm Surge on Lake Erie

2025· preprint· en· W4409783069 on OpenAlexfundaboutno aff
Matt Julseth, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicFlood Risk Assessment and Management
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersQueen's University
KeywordsStorm surgeSurgeStormEnvironmental scienceMeteorologyClimatologyOceanographyGeologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Lake Erie is the second smallest and shallowest Great Lake, with a gradual bathymetric profile and alignment of the lake's longitudinal axis with common wind patterns.The physical characteristics of Lake Erie result in major storm surge events along the lake's shoreline, having significant social and economic consequences.To understand the sensitivity of Lake Erie to physical and atmospheric variables, a highresolution storm surge model was developed using Delft3D.This model aimed to accurately hindcast an extreme water level event which had a maximum water level differential of 4.27 m and a maximum windspeed of ~25 m/s.The Delft3D model exhibited low sensitivity to lake bottom friction and high sensitivity to wind drag as demonstrated through iterative sensitivity analysis.The final model predicted a maximum water level differential of 3.68 m with a total Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) of 0.14 m for the fiveday simulation period.Model results are comparable to existing hydrodynamic models for Lake Erie and fall within the upper range of maximum water level hand calculations.Further calibration of wind drag parameters is recommended to improve model performance.Once this model is developed further it may be applied to compliment and improve water level forecasts made by an existing operational hydrodynamic forecast system called COASTLINES (Canadian cOASTal and Lake forecastINg modEl System).This system will provide improved water level predictions using near-real time atmospheric forcing for lake management and public awareness.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.195
Threshold uncertainty score0.387

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.020
GPT teacher head0.241
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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