Origins of Nearctic migratory landbird vagrants recorded in Europe revealed by feather isotopic analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the occurrence of vagrant individuals away from their usual distribution range can shed light on animal navigation systems. In autumn, migratory Nearctic landbirds often occur as far as Western Europe, and while the link between these occurrences and wind conditions over the Atlantic Ocean is largely established, the drivers and natal origins of these transatlantic vagrants remain elusive. We conducted feather hydrogen isotopic (δ 2 H f ) analyses from 72 Nearctic individuals representing 26 landbird species captured in the Azores (Portugal), Iceland and France over the last century to infer their likely origins. While potential origins of several individuals came from northeastern Nearctic populations (e.g., Blackpoll Warbler, Northern Parula), we also found that some individuals likely originated from northwestern (e.g., American Redstart, Gray-cheeked Thrush) or southern (Yellow-billed Cuckoo) populations. Our results confirm that northeastern populations migrating along the coast or undertaking over-water flights are more likely to be displaced. However, they also show that even northwestern populations migrating southeast towards the eastern coast of North America have the potential to be displaced across the Atlantic Ocean. Further research is needed to fully understand the drivers of these transatlantic vagrancy events and to determine whether wind is the only factor that can push migratory individuals off their intended course. Overall, this study sheds light on the broad geographic origins of transoceanic vagrants and the potential implications for the colonization of new regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".