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Record W4410109006 · doi:10.1098/rsos.241471

Simulation-based inference advances water quality mapping in shallow coral reef environments

2025· article· en· W4410109006 on OpenAlexaff
Pirta Palola, Theenathayalan Varunan, Cornelius Schröder, Víctor Martínez-Vicente, Antoine Collin, Rosalie Wright, Melissa Ward, Eleanor R. Thomson, Patricia López, Eric J. Hochberg, Yadvinder Malhi, Lisa M. Wedding

Bibliographic record

VenueRoyal Society Open Science · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicCoral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Canadian institutionsEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
FundersOsk. Huttusen säätiöFondation Bertarelli
KeywordsMultispectral imageHyperspectral imagingRemote sensingEnvironmental scienceComputer scienceCoral reefBayesian inferenceInferenceBenthic zoneArtificial intelligenceBayesian probabilityGeologyOceanography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Human activities are altering coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Optical remote sensing via satellites and drones can offer novel insights into where and how coral reefs are changing. However, interpretation of the observed optical signal (remote-sensing reflectance) is an ill-posed inverse problem, as there may be multiple different combinations of water constituents, depth and benthic reflectance that result in a similar optical signal. Here, we apply a new approach, simulation-based inference, for addressing the inverse problem in marine remote sensing. The simulation-based inference algorithm combines physics-based analytical modelling with approximate Bayesian inference and machine learning. The input to the algorithm is remote-sensing reflectance, and the output is the likely range (posterior probability density) of phytoplankton and suspended minerals concentrations, coloured dissolved organic matter absorption, wind speed and depth. We compare inference models trained with simulated hyperspectral or multispectral reflectance spectra characterized by different signal-to-noise ratios. We apply the inference model to in situ radiometric data ( n = 4) and multispectral drone imagery collected on the Tetiaroa atoll (South Pacific). We show that water constituent concentrations can be estimated from hyperspectral and multispectral remote-sensing reflectance in optically shallow environments, assuming a single benthic cover. Future developments should consider spectral mixing of multiple benthic cover types.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.125
Threshold uncertainty score0.582

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.028
GPT teacher head0.323
Teacher spread0.295 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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