Machine learning-based real-time prediction of duodenal stump leakage from gastrectomy in gastric cancer patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for real-time prediction of duodenal stump leakage (DSL) following gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer (GC) using a comprehensive set of clinical variables to improve postoperative outcomes and monitoring efficiency. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,107 patients with GC who underwent gastrectomy at Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital between 2019 and 2022. One hundred eighty-nine features were extracted from each patient record, including demographic data, preoperative comorbidities, and blood test outcomes from the subsequent seven postoperative days (POD). Six ML algorithms were evaluated: Logistic Regression (LR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Neural Network (NN). The models predicted DSL occurrence preoperatively and on POD 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7. Performance was assessed using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) and Recall@K. Results: Among the 1,107 patients, 29 developed DSL. XGB demonstrated the highest AUROC score (0.880), followed by RF (0.858), LR (0.823), SVM (0.819), NN (0.753), and KNN (0.726). The RF achieved the best Recall@K score of 0.643. Including additional POD features improved the predictive performance, with the AUROC value increasing to 0.879 on POD 7. The confidence scores of the model indicated that the DSL predictions became more reliable over time. Conclusion: The study concluded that ML models, notably the XGB algorithm, can effectively predict DSL in real-time using comprehensive clinical data, enhancing the clinical decision-making process for GC patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".