Does it matter who is in charge? Ministerial characteristics and pledge fulfilment
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pledge fulfilment studies frequently anticipate that party control of a given ministry increases the chance campaign promises within that brief will be enacted. However, existing evidence is mixed, and few studies have looked beyond ministers’ partisan affiliation. It stands to reason that other personal and political characteristics may influence ministers’ ability and motivation to pursue manifesto commitments from within government. Following the ministerial selection and survival literature, which shows that certain characteristics are prioritized by parties, in this paper we investigate the effect of ministers’ previous political and policy-relevant professional experience on the fulfilment of election pledges within their competence. We test these by combining existing election pledge data with information on ministers’ characteristics in five institutionally distinct, small-to-medium sized democracies: Austria, Canada, Czechia, Slovakia and Sweden. We demonstrate that prior ministerial experience enhances ministers’ capacity to deliver on party policy, but that other characteristics have varying effects cross-nationally.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it