Impact of delaying PCV20 implementation in France’s pediatric national immunization program: A population-based Markov model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We assessed the public health and economic impacts in France for infants below 1-year of delaying PCV20 (3 + 1) implementation compared to continuous use of PCV15 (2 + 1) and PCV13 (2 + 1). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population-based Markov model was adapted for French pediatric population. Outcomes included pneumococcal disease cases, deaths, and direct costs. Impact of a PCV20 two-year implementation delay was reported by month, quarter, and year. RESULTS: Delaying PCV20 implementation in French children was estimated to result in preventable 15,356 disease cases and 1,489 deaths over two years, with cost of €117.4 million, versus the continuous use of PCV15. PCV20 versus PCV13 results were slightly reduced but followed a similar trend. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid implementation of PCV20 is estimated to prevent thousands of cases and deaths over two years compared to the continuous PCV15 or PCV13 use, reducing significant negative impact to public health outcomes and waste of health care resources.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".