A Foraging-Theory-Based Model Captures the Spectrum of Human Behavioral Diversity in Sequential Decision Making
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Decision-making tasks involving multiple, simultaneously presented options are mainstays of cognitive neuroscience and psychology and are increasingly important to the emerging field of computational psychiatry. Modeling approaches to these tasks overwhelmingly assume that participants make choices based on explicitly comparing the values of the presented options. Contrary to this long-held assumption, we found instead that humans employ a compare-to-threshold decision process, similar to theories of foraging, when making sequential decisions about concurrently available options. We confirmed this result in a large (1000 participant) dataset with multiple converging lines of evidence comparing both model fits and model generative performance. Value-comparison models were restricted to a reduced area of the potential space of single-trial outcome-dependent behavior, demonstrating an intrinsic limitation in the ability to reproduce strategy diversity. Furthermore, we found that using even the best-fit value-comparison model led to a substantial, systematic bias and a compression of individual differences in reconstructed behavior compared to the foraging-based model, leading to weaker predictions of behavioral health measures. Our results imply that studies using value-comparison models to link behavior with neural activity or psychiatric symptoms may be less sensitive to individual differences than a simple alternative based on ethological foraging.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".