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Record W4410282690 · doi:10.1101/2025.05.07.652633

High early embryo mortality and low hatching success observed in Aldabra giant tortoise populations

2025· preprint· en· W4410282690 on OpenAlexaff
Alessia M Lavigne

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicTurtle Biology and Conservation
Canadian institutionsNorth Island College
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTortoisePersistence (discontinuity)IllusionEcologyGeographyBiologyZoologyGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract In long-lived species, logistical constraints often limit monitoring to adult population censuses, potentially generating data that is biased towards older, more discernible individuals, and obscuring problems occurring at early life stages. Since adult populations of long-lived species can persist for decades despite reduced productivity, declines driven by reproductive failure may remain undetected until sudden population collapses occur. We present preliminary data on fertilisation success, early embryo survival, and hatching success, across one natural and five translocated populations of Aldabra giant tortoises ( Aldabrachelys gigantea ) in the Seychelles. Of 317 eggs from 24 clutches, only 16% successfully hatched. Most failed eggs (97%) were undeveloped, and using recently developed microscopic methods to assess egg fertility, we provide the first population-level comparisons of fertilisation and hatching outcomes for this species. Although sample sizes are limited, our results consistently indicate low and variable hatching success across populations, driven primarily by embryo mortality. Complete clutch failure was common (67%), and among clutches that did experience some degree of hatching success, early embryo mortality was still prevalent. Hatching rates were markedly reduced in translocated populations (0-26%) compared to the natural Aldabra Atoll population (46%) and consistently fell below historical hatching rate estimates (60-80%) reported ∼50 years ago. Although preliminary, these data provide the most accurate estimates of fertility available for Aldabra giant tortoises, as well as the first reproductive success data for any translocated population and the first for Aldabra in the last five decades. Our findings highlight the limitations of relying solely on adult census data for threat assessments in long-lived species. We argue that it is essential to incorporate productivity metrics into monitoring frameworks to improve population vulnerability predictions and inform effective conservation management.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.011

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.028
GPT teacher head0.239
Teacher spread0.211 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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