Peer Relationships Are a Direct Cause of the Adolescent Mental Health Crisis: Interpretable Machine Learning Analysis of 2 Large Cohort Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Converging evidence indicates an adolescent mental health crisis in Western societies that has developed and exacerbated over the past decade. The proposed driving factors of this trend include more screen time, physical inactivity, and social isolation, but their causal influence on mental health is insufficiently understood. Objective: The objective of this study is to test whether and based on which predictor variables the development of mental health in adolescents in the last decade can be predicted and to better understand the causal chain of factors at work. Methods: We implemented an interpretable machine learning pipeline based on gradient boosting regression with repeated cross-validation to assess the development of mental health throughout adolescence in members of 2 longitudinal cohort studies, the British Millenium cohort (MC; n=8599) and the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) cohort (n=1212). In total, 144 (MC) and 102 (KiGGS) predictors assessed at the age of around 13.8 years (MC) and 11.6 years (KiGGS) were used to assess mental health at the ages of around 16.7 years (MC) and 16.4 years (KiGGS). Based on these predictive models, we used permutation-based feature importance analyses to identify relevant predictors and predictor domains. Moreover, we performed partial dependence analyses in a causal inference framework to determine the direct effects of physical inactivity, screen time, and peer problems on the development of mental health. Results: The average cross-validated Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between predicted and true mental health in late adolescence was 0.614 (MC) and 0.466 (KiGGS). Feature importance analyses indicated a strong impact of preexisting mental health and weaker impacts of sex (female as a risk factor), physical health (chronic disease as a risk factor), lifestyle, and socioeconomic and family factors (eg, low parental education, income, and mental health as risk factors). Causal inference analyses suggested a strong direct effect of peer relationships, but only a small direct effect of physical inactivity and a very small direct effect of screen time. Conclusions: Mental health development during adolescence can be assessed by a combination of variables from early adolescence. Peer problems represent an important direct cause of mental health development, and their deterioration may contribute to the current mental health crisis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.054 | 0.072 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".