Local linear smoothing for regression surfaces on the simplex using Dirichlet kernels
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper introduces a local linear smoother for regression surfaces on the simplex. The estimator solves a least-squares regression problem weighted by a locally adaptive Dirichlet kernel, ensuring good boundary properties. Asymptotic results for the bias, variance, mean squared error, and mean integrated squared error are derived, generalizing the univariate results of Chen (Ann Inst Stat Math, 54(2):312-323, 2002). A simulation study shows that the proposed local linear estimator with Dirichlet kernel outperforms its only direct competitor in the literature, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator with Dirichlet kernel due to Bouzebda et al. (AIMS Math 9(9):26195-26282, 2024).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it