A Hybrid Forecasting Model for Stock Price Prediction: The Case of Iranian Listed Companies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper introduces advanced computational methods for stock price prediction, integrating Fast Recurrent Neural Networks (FastRNN) with meta-heuristic algorithms such as the Horse Herd Optimization Algorithm (HOA) and the Spotted Hyena Optimizer (SHO). By challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Random Walk Hypothesis, our research demonstrates the effectiveness of these hybrid models in semi-strong or weak-form efficient markets. The study leverages data from five listed Iranian companies (2011–2021) and 25 factors encompassing technical, fundamental, and economic considerations. Our findings highlight the superior accuracy of the FastRNN optimised by HOA, SHO, and a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) in forecasting stock prices compared to conventional FastRNN models. This research contributes to the multidisciplinary field of computational economics, emphasising advanced computing capabilities to address complex economic problems through innovative econometrics, optimisation, and machine learning approaches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".