MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort

Anticipating the unforeseeable? ESG risk management in mining companies

2025· article· en· W4410489445 on OpenAlex
Olivier Boiral, Marie‐Christine Brotherton, David Talbot

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueResources Policy · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicMining and Resource Management
Canadian institutionsÉcole Nationale d'Administration PubliqueInstitut National de Santé Publique du QuébecUniversité Laval
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
KeywordsBusinessRisk managementFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The aim of this article is to investigate the foreseeability of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in the mining sector by analyzing the impacts anticipated when mining projects were first submitted to the authorities, and crises or critical incidents observed ex-post at mining sites. An in-depth analysis of 57 critical sustainability incidents that occurred at 19 different Canadian mining sites, and of the way in which companies and stakeholders anticipated or failed to anticipate them in prior risk analyses, enables us to map the main impacts of this industry and to highlight the uneven ability of companies and stakeholders to effectively anticipate them. The results obtained were analyzed through an integrative model with four main configurations of risk foreseeability: high-visibility risks (good anticipation by both companies and stakeholders), stakeholder red flags (risks identified by stakeholders only), corporate foresight (risks identified by companies only) and black swans (risks neglected by both companies and stakeholders). This article makes substantial contributions to the literature on the foreseeability of ESG risks, the uncertain ways that polluting companies integrate such risks into their planning, and the management of critical sustainability incidents. Practical implications and avenues for future research are also developed. • Risk can be anticipated by companies or stakeholders. • Mining companies de not systematically integrate ESG risks into their planning. • Critical incidents are multidimensional and can cover many ESG risks. • Stakeholders are better than companies to anticipate ESG risks.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.462
Threshold uncertainty score0.526

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.253
Teacher spread0.243 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it