AI‐Enhanced PV Power Forecasting Using Cloud Thickness and Motion in Kayseri, Türkiye
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT The incorporation of renewable energy in photovoltaic (PV) systems has made significant progress. The inherent intermittency nature of PV generation, nevertheless poses an obstacle to accurate energy forecasting. Historical PV production plus meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure are largely utilized in present methods of forecasting. However, cloud thickness and dynamics‐integrated system, has not been investigated and tested in real‐world examples yet. This research seeks to fill this gap in research through the development of a new AI‐based PV forecasting model that incorporates cloud thickness, cloud motion, and solar position into the forecasting model. Cloud properties and their impact on solar radiation are computed through a deep learning‐based panel‐shadowing model. For cloud movement forecasting, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) is used, while multiple convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used for estimating cloud thickness. These outcomes are then integrated with measurements from environmental sensors to improve the accuracy of the predictions. The system was implemented and tested at Abdullah Gül University and exhibited a remarkable improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to current models. The results prove that cloud motion and thickness improve the accuracy of PV predictions, which is important for energy market stability and power grid operations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".