Support for the intermittent upwelling hypothesis using 10 years of barnacle recruitment data from a western ocean boundary in Atlantic Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recruitment is a key demographic step for the persistence of populations, so understanding its drivers has traditionally been a relevant goal of ecology. On marine rocky shores, coastal oceanography is an important driver of the recruitment of intertidal invertebrates that reproduce through pelagic larvae by affecting larval transport and delivery. The intermittent upwelling hypothesis (IUH) posits that coastal pelagic larvae are driven offshore under intense upwelling or to depths under intense downwelling, while weak upwelling allows larvae to stay near the shore, thereby facilitating intertidal recruitment. The IUH thus predicts a unimodal relationship between Bakun's upwelling index (BUI) and intertidal recruitment. The IUH has been supported by studies that plotted simultaneously single average values of recruitment and BUI for various coastal locations that collectively span downwelling to upwelling conditions. Based on its theoretical foundations, the IUH should also hold for a target location analyzed over the years provided enough interannual variation in BUI. On the Atlantic Canadian coast in Nova Scotia, upwelling varies interannually depending on wind patterns. Therefore, for a location that is representative of the abiotic and biotic conditions on this coast (Western Head), we tested the IUH by measuring annual intertidal barnacle recruitment and BUI for the pelagic larval season of barnacles for a period of 10 years (2014-2024). On this coast, BUI averaged for the barnacle larval season varied among years from mild downwelling to clear upwelling. Generalized additive modelling revealed a unimodal relationship between intertidal barnacle recruitment and BUI, thereby supporting the IUH. These results add this western ocean boundary to the known list of coastal systems where upwelling may influence intertidal invertebrate recruitment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: yes | Observational | high |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: yes | Observational | high |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".