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Record W4410539009 · doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101408

Airfare prediction: Leveraging market data for better decision-making

2025· article· en· W4410539009 on OpenAlex
Kerem Bülbül

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch in Transportation Business & Management · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicAviation Industry Analysis and Trends
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsComputer scienceBig dataBusinessArtificial intelligenceMachine learningData mining

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Airline revenue management is crucial for airlines to maintain their competitive position in the market. Revenue management addresses two main concerns in airline planning processes, pricing and seat inventory management, to balance supply and demand. Pricing or determination of airfare is a complex decision-making process influenced by factors including distance, number of passengers, market share, competition, and route-related characteristics. However, it is a central element as it impacts revenue generation, market positioning, demand management, cost recovery, and customer relationships. This study investigates the machine learning perspective on predicting airline market-level airfares and examines the determinants of airfare. In this regard, exploiting the publicly available data from the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics, several supervised machine learning algorithms are tested and compared to obtain the most effective prediction for the given dataset. The Random Forest model outperformed the other models, with R adj 2 and RMSE scores of 0.998 and 1.811, respectively. An ad hoc feature importance analysis is also performed to gain further insight into the determinants of market-level airfares. The findings emphasize the importance of operational costs and pricing strategies in airfare prices.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.959
Threshold uncertainty score0.564

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.135
GPT teacher head0.366
Teacher spread0.230 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it